Forex Economic News

As has been the case for the last several weeks, the US news cycle should have a great effect on how the greenback responds versus the most actively traded currencies. The greenback had seen some gains from late trading last week into early this week, only to see it weaken again yesterday. Investors continued their cautious behavior avoiding risk-laden trades while awaiting today's economic schedule.

Today, the dominant US news consists of Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales figures, as well as the PPI and Core PPI reports. Retail numbers are forecast to come in less than in previous months, however even if there is a rise in such numbers, it doesn't look like it will effect the already tenuous trader sentiment versus the dollar. As short term price action helps to slow down greenback losses, traders are gearing up for how the Fed will react to the deteriorating state of the dollar.

The release of the aforementioned events is to be followed by a speech at the 25th annual Monetary Conference in Washington D.C. by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. Bernanke is slated to discuss FOMC communications; however it is safe to assume that he will address questions regarding the day's consumer reports as well. As has become the norm, we should expect some volatility in and around the Fed Chairman's speech, as he is known for leaving hints of future US policies. As more important information is still to be seen before weeks end, we should see the greenback continue once again to fall in today's trading.

Yesterday saw the release of the German ZEW survey fall to its lowest point in fifteen years. Still, the EUR returned to its latest form against the greenback as it gained throughout the day. Euro-zone businesses continue to strengthen amidst much more negative views from analysts. The likelihood of the ECB hiking interest rates continues to grow as even the troubled German economy has staved off effects from the strengthened 13 nation currency and continues to bring promise to traders. The ECB will keep a close eye on Crude Oil prices as a significant rise toward $100 per barrel will only solidify the inevitability of an ECB interest rate hike. On the contrary, there are several treasury officials pressuring the ECB to wait with the rate hike since they think the EUR is overvalued, which severely hurts Euro zone exporters and has a negative impact on all of the Euro zone economy .

Today's economic calendar in Europe is highlighted by German GDP numbers, which are expected to be high, as well as words by ECB President Trichet. The president will speak in Paris at a conference held by Banque de France and Fédération Bancaire Française at 8:00 GMT. With the lion's share of news coming from the US and the UK, the euro-zone should look to see steady growth to continue with yesterday's trends.

The positive trends in carry trades continues after yesterday's interest rate decision which left the interest rate unchanged and once again pushed the JPY down today. Still being affected by remarks made by Bank of Japan Governor Fukui, the JPY slid against the 16 most-actively traded currencies, most versus the Aussie and New Zealand dollars. With equity growth being shown across the board, investors are more inclined to invest in risky positions thus driving down low yielding currencies such as the JPY.

The Japanese calendar is relatively barren for the rest of the week, with only two minor news events scheduled. Today's Tertiary Industry Activity Index along with Thursday's release of Monetary Policy meeting minutes, should do little to change the JPY. It has become more evident that the movement in the JPY is in the hands of the sub-prime mortgage crisis in the US coupled with growth in EUR dependability. Uncertainty, of which there is a lot these days, is what can hurt the Japanese currency the most. In Fukui's words, "As the global capital markets undergo a re-pricing of risks, financial markets continue to be unstable". It is imperative to keep an eye out on the coming day's news events from Europe an the US to properly gage the direction of the JPY, all signs now continue to point down.